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CAD Rates Pare Yesterday’s Rally

CANADA
  • Broadly similar front-end performance in 2Y GoC and Tsys on the day (+4.3bp vs +3.7bp) masks two different profiles when it comes to rates.
  • BAX futures hold a steadily increasing sell-off, from -0.01 for the Sep’23 to -0.04 for the Jun’24 and -0.05 for the Dec’24, in contrast to SOFR futures with -0.02 for the Sep’23, topping out with -0.08 for mid-2024 and with smaller declines thereafter.
  • The move sees the BAU3/Z4 spread tighten 4bps to -54.5bps although not fully back to the -49bps two days ago for the lowest close since Sep’22.
  • Near-term, BoC-dated OIS prices +7bp for Sep 6 before building to a cumulative +18bp to year-end (based off CORRA at 5.01%).

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