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CAD Underperforms The Day After BoC

CANADA
  • USDCAD continues to sit within 10 pips of earlier fresh highs since March at 1.3679, which had poked above yesterday’s 1.3676 to extend a series of steps higher over the past two weeks.
  • This sequence brings it closer to resistance at 1.3719 (1.0% 10-dma envelope) followed by 1.3722 (trendline resistance drawn from Oct 13, 2022 high).
  • The day’s move higher comes despite equity and crude futures moving off lows, with CAD sliding to the bottom of the G10 FX pack the day after the BoC left rates unchanged as expected with an explicit bias higher if further increases are required. It also takes it further off fair value estimates, for example seen near 1.33 in TD's high frequency model after the BoC decision.
  • Gov. Macklem speaks ahead but otherwise focus will be on tomorrow’s jobs report with expectations for a further drift higher in the u/e rate but only a limited moderation in wage growth.

Source: Bloomberg

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