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Calming Tones of Fed Chair Powell, Equities New Highs

US TSYS
Quiet finish to week and an eagerly awaited session focused on KC Fed's Jackson Hole economic symposium. Hawkish buildup -- six generally hawkish Fed speakers interviewed on CNBC, Bbg prior to the Fed chair speech: Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy (not to mention KC Fed's George, StL's Bullard and Dallas' Kaplan on Thu).
  • Rates pared losses/marched higher after Fed Chair Powell's calming/dovish tones: modest pace of tapering, hikes on hold, inflation transitory. Improved risk appetite: S&P eminis made new all-time highs, ESU1 4509.75 +42.75; Gold surged over 25.0, Crude climbed to 69.5 high, while US$ weakened: DXY index -3.98 to 92.664 after the rates close.
  • Heavy futures volume: Sep/Dec Tsy rolling nearly complete before Dec takes lead next Tuesday, while Sep option expiry generated decent two-way trade as TYU neared strike with appr 160k open interest.
  • Eurodollar futures: over -80,000 EDM2/EDU2 (Jun/Red Sep'22) spds sold at +0.090 to 0.085 last few minutes. Traders note that Reds (EDU2-EDM3) and Greens (EDU3-EDM4) were trading higher pre-Fed chair comments on rate hike positioning -- are scaling back gains with Greens-Blues (EDU3-EDM5) outperforming on unwinds of hike positioning in general. "Market now feels caught" one desk offered.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 2.6bps at 0.2151%, 5-Yr is down 5bps at 0.7995%, 10-Yr is down 3.9bps at 1.3104%, and 30-Yr is down 3.1bps at 1.9154%.

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