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Can A 'Poor' NFP Print Lead To Further CEE FX Gains?

EM FX
  • This week, the strong consolidation in the US Dollar combined with the fall in political uncertainty in Poland have led to a strong bounce in CEE currencies.
  • PLN has been the best performingcurrency among the EM world, up nearly 3% against the greenback so far.
  • With market now expecting a poor NFP print for January following the catastrophic ADP print of -301K on Wednesday, the US dollar could continue to retrace lower in the short term.
  • The DXY index is down over 2.2% since its high of 97.44 reached last Friday, and is currently testing its 100DMA support at 95.1925; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 95.
  • Key ST support to watch on the downside stands at 94.63 (Jan 14 low).
  • CEE FX ST supports:
    • Support to watch on USDPLN stands at 3.9430, followed by 3.9160 (200DMA).
    • On USDHUF, first support to watch stands at 307.10 , followed by 306.30 (200DMA).
    • Support to watch on USDCZK stands at 21.16, followed by21.

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