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Can The Momentum On Financials Persists As Uncertainty Start To Surge (Again)?

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Risk-on environment have been supporting risky assets this month, partly driven by the sharp depreciation in the Japanese yen.
  • EM financials have been testing new highs this week, with MXEF0FN Index breaking above its 349 resistance and currently trading at its highest level since early June.
  • Even though cyclical stocks may be supported by the rise in LT bond yields, driven by growing concerns over stagflation risks, the reintroduction of new Covid restrictions combined with the significant fall in liquidity could start to weigh on financials in the medium term.
  • This chart shows that the drastic contraction in Chinese real M1 money growth, which we compute as the difference between the growth in money supply in PPI inflation, has been pricing in lower financial equities in recent months.
  • Can the divergence persist in the medium term?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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