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Can The Risk On Environment Persist Despite Rising Uncertainty?

FOREX
  • In the past month, the risk-on environment triggered by the sharp drop in price volatility combined with JPY weakness has generated a ST rally in risky assets.
  • The chart below shows that both the Aussie and China equities, which had been consolidating since February due to the sharp deceleration in Chinese economic activity, have experienced a strong rally this month.
  • However, investors are skeptical if the current environment can continue in the coming weeks: falling liquidity, rising uncertainty (i.e. more Covid restrictions), stronger USD are all major risks for global asset prices.
  • Hence, a sudden increase in price volatility (i.e. VIX) would lead to a clear reversal in market's current trends (i.e. cheaper Aussie and falling Chinese equities).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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