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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUDNZD
AUD/NZD has seen some support on dips just below the 100-day MA in recent sessions, see the chart below. We have spent very little time sub this support level in 2022. It currently comes in at 1.1140, versus spot at 1.1170/75. Note the 50-day comes in just under 1.1219 on the topside. Relative short-term drivers are still skewed in favor of NZD, but we do have some important data releases this week.
- The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread is back to -100bps. The last time we were at this level the cross had a 1.0800 handle. It's a slightly better picture for AUD in terms of government bond yield spreads, but only at the margin.
- Relative data surprises are still in NZ's favor, according to the Citi surprise indices, although the rate of NZ outperformance is slowing. For relative commodity prices it is a similar theme.
- The A$ is also not enjoying the same outperformance during global equity sell-off period compared to late September/early October.
- From a data standpoint, tomorrow's NZ Q3 CPI will be important, while in Australia, tomorrow's RBA minutes are in focus, as well as a speech from Deputy Governor Bullock. Thursday delivers AU September employment data.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Wedged Between 50 & 100 Day MAs
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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