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/CANADA: And the TD analysts.......>

US TSYS/RESEARCH
US TSYS/RESEARCH: /CANADA: And the TD analysts added the first round of NAFTA
talks "is set to begin Aug. 16, lasting 5 days and marking the official start to
a timeline that could take years. While we continue to believe the talks will
focus on modernization and necessary enhancements, there are several risks
underappreciated by markets in our view. Above all, the greatest risk to the
outlooks of the US, Canada and Mexico is uncertainty, as a timeline lasting more
than a few months is likely and this could weigh on investment decisions. Daily
trade flows between the US and Canada amount to roughly $1.7bn; between the US
and Mexico, $1.6bn."
- TD analysts added on FX that with "USD/CAD trading close to high-frequency
fair value and positioning in CAD looking stretched, we think the start of the
NAFTA discussion will favor upside momentum in the pair. Near-term we see the
risks of a test of the 1.2940 level, where we would look to start fading the
pair."

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