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CANADA DATA: Trade Data Show Mixed Signs For Domestic Demand Growth

CANADA DATA
GlobalCanadaData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Canada saw another month with a larger than expected merchandise trade deficit, at C$1.26bn (cons C$0.95bn) in September after an upward revised C$1.47bn (initial C$1.1bn).
  • The relative improvement from that larger than first thought deficit came as a smaller non-energy deficit (from C$13.1bn to $12.1bn) offset a smaller energy surplus (from C$11.6bn to C$10.9bn).
  • It leaves a three-month run annualized deficit at 0.4% GDP, comprising of a non-energy deficit worth 5.0% GDP and an energy surplus worth 4.6% GDP.  
  • Add a services deficit worth 0.5% GDP over the same three-month basis and the goods & services trade deficit was unchanged at 0.9% GDP, having averaged close to 1% GDP since late spring. That’s relatively large by post-pandemic standards but smaller than the 1.5-2% GDP averaged pre-pandemic.
  • Taking a step back and looking just at the merchandise data again, import volumes show mixed domestic demand implications.
  • Total import volumes were broadly flat in September (-0.2% M/M) which left them at -2% Y/Y (0% Y/Y 3mth). It masks genuinely strong consumer goods volumes of 6% Y/Y (8% Y/Y 3mth) with a sizeable counterweight from continued weakness in our proxy for capital goods import volumes at -3% Y/Y (-1% Y/Y 3mth).  
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  • Canada saw another month with a larger than expected merchandise trade deficit, at C$1.26bn (cons C$0.95bn) in September after an upward revised C$1.47bn (initial C$1.1bn).
  • The relative improvement from that larger than first thought deficit came as a smaller non-energy deficit (from C$13.1bn to $12.1bn) offset a smaller energy surplus (from C$11.6bn to C$10.9bn).
  • It leaves a three-month run annualized deficit at 0.4% GDP, comprising of a non-energy deficit worth 5.0% GDP and an energy surplus worth 4.6% GDP.  
  • Add a services deficit worth 0.5% GDP over the same three-month basis and the goods & services trade deficit was unchanged at 0.9% GDP, having averaged close to 1% GDP since late spring. That’s relatively large by post-pandemic standards but smaller than the 1.5-2% GDP averaged pre-pandemic.
  • Taking a step back and looking just at the merchandise data again, import volumes show mixed domestic demand implications.
  • Total import volumes were broadly flat in September (-0.2% M/M) which left them at -2% Y/Y (0% Y/Y 3mth). It masks genuinely strong consumer goods volumes of 6% Y/Y (8% Y/Y 3mth) with a sizeable counterweight from continued weakness in our proxy for capital goods import volumes at -3% Y/Y (-1% Y/Y 3mth).