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EUR: Can't Sustain Move above 1.0400, Option Expiries Close To Current Spot

EUR
USCEEMEABulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America

EUR/USD is a little higher in the first part of Thursday trade, although has been unable to sustain +1.0400 levels. The pair last near 1.0390/95. Intra-session highs from Wednesday came in at 1.0430, which is close to the 50-day EMA resistance point, see the chart below. A clear break of this level would be a bullish development.

  • Note the busy option expiry pipeline for NY cut later as well, which could influence spot trends: $1.0300-15(E896mln), $1.0375(E1.2bln), $1.0400(E1.3bln), $1.0500(E1.9bln).
  • Near term focus is also likely to rest with geopolitical developments. EU equity futures have re-opened firmer, the Euro-Stoxx up around 0.90%. Potential optimism around a truce in the Ukraine conflict with Russia is likely aiding sentiment. Trump/Putin reported discussions is fueling optimism towards what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. There also appears to be an understanding for US President Trump and Russian President Putin to talk which may take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • European equities have been outperforming US equities in recent months, presenting a positive EUR cross backdrop.
  • US data surprises, per the CITI index reading, has also slipped under the equivalent metric for the EU area. 

Fig 1: EUR/USD Versus Key EMAs 

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EUR/USD is a little higher in the first part of Thursday trade, although has been unable to sustain +1.0400 levels. The pair last near 1.0390/95. Intra-session highs from Wednesday came in at 1.0430, which is close to the 50-day EMA resistance point, see the chart below. A clear break of this level would be a bullish development.

  • Note the busy option expiry pipeline for NY cut later as well, which could influence spot trends: $1.0300-15(E896mln), $1.0375(E1.2bln), $1.0400(E1.3bln), $1.0500(E1.9bln).
  • Near term focus is also likely to rest with geopolitical developments. EU equity futures have re-opened firmer, the Euro-Stoxx up around 0.90%. Potential optimism around a truce in the Ukraine conflict with Russia is likely aiding sentiment. Trump/Putin reported discussions is fueling optimism towards what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. There also appears to be an understanding for US President Trump and Russian President Putin to talk which may take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • European equities have been outperforming US equities in recent months, presenting a positive EUR cross backdrop.
  • US data surprises, per the CITI index reading, has also slipped under the equivalent metric for the EU area. 

Fig 1: EUR/USD Versus Key EMAs 

Keep reading...Show less