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JGBS: Cash Bonds Little Changed, BoJ Rinban Due

JGBS
EM BulletFixed Income BulletsBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsJapanMarkets

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures have given up the overnight uptick and is now trading lower, -6 compared to settlement levels.

  • Today, the local calendar will see BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-25-year JGBs.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bull-flattener.
  • Cash JGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.4bp higher at 1.198% versus the cycle high of 1.262%.
  • Swap rates are ~1bp higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
  • BoJ Policy Decision is on Friday, with a 25bp hike expected. A hike will put the BoJ's key rate at 0.5%, its highest level since 2008.
  • "The BoJ is moving toward deciding to raise interest rates at its policy meeting this week, Kyodo News reports." (per BBG)
  • Market expectations currently indicate: a 92% probability of a 25bp hike in January; a cumulative 96% chance by March; and a full 25bp increase priced by May 2025.
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In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures have given up the overnight uptick and is now trading lower, -6 compared to settlement levels.

  • Today, the local calendar will see BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-25-year JGBs.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bull-flattener.
  • Cash JGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.4bp higher at 1.198% versus the cycle high of 1.262%.
  • Swap rates are ~1bp higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
  • BoJ Policy Decision is on Friday, with a 25bp hike expected. A hike will put the BoJ's key rate at 0.5%, its highest level since 2008.
  • "The BoJ is moving toward deciding to raise interest rates at its policy meeting this week, Kyodo News reports." (per BBG)
  • Market expectations currently indicate: a 92% probability of a 25bp hike in January; a cumulative 96% chance by March; and a full 25bp increase priced by May 2025.