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CBR comes out exactly as expected
- Cautious over CPI spike to 4.6%-4.9%
- Room left to ease next year (25bp) and likely base at 4.00%
- 4Q growth taking a bit of a hit due to covid
- Fiscal policy mostly to blame for CPI dynamics
- 2h21 inflation to moderate after base effects, RUB passthrough and end of the food supply shock
- Still tracking higher, despite reinforced RUB carry.
- Most likely highlighting concerns over growth- Topside resistance at 73.6950, 73.8229