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CHINA: Caxin Manufacturing PMI Disappoints, Uncertainties Cloud 2025

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The Caixin manufacturing PMI for December disappointed, just as the China Federation one did earlier in the week. It printed at 50.5 down from 51.5 in November, and below consensus at 51.7. This is pressuring oil prices and China/HK equities. Planned monetary and fiscal stimulus for 2025 was announced late last year but it was vague and analysts will watch closely for the degree of its impact.

  • Manufacturing activity grew at the end of 2024 but at a slower pace due to a smaller increase in output and orders with export orders and employment falling. The fall in foreign orders followed growth at its fastest in November suggesting some payback in December.
  • Optimism regarding the outlook for the year ahead was also softer driven by the prospect of increased US tariffs and “challenged hopes for new product- and policy-driven sales growth”, according to Caixin.
  • There was no good news on inflation from the survey, which has been hovering just above zero, with producers choosing to reduce margins to attract customers resulting in a drop in selling prices.
  • See Caixin report here.
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The Caixin manufacturing PMI for December disappointed, just as the China Federation one did earlier in the week. It printed at 50.5 down from 51.5 in November, and below consensus at 51.7. This is pressuring oil prices and China/HK equities. Planned monetary and fiscal stimulus for 2025 was announced late last year but it was vague and analysts will watch closely for the degree of its impact.

  • Manufacturing activity grew at the end of 2024 but at a slower pace due to a smaller increase in output and orders with export orders and employment falling. The fall in foreign orders followed growth at its fastest in November suggesting some payback in December.
  • Optimism regarding the outlook for the year ahead was also softer driven by the prospect of increased US tariffs and “challenged hopes for new product- and policy-driven sales growth”, according to Caixin.
  • There was no good news on inflation from the survey, which has been hovering just above zero, with producers choosing to reduce margins to attract customers resulting in a drop in selling prices.
  • See Caixin report here.