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CB Pricing Update

STIR FUTURES

STIR futures all lower this morning following the weekend source report from Bloomberg on the US banking sector and after First Citizens Bank acquired SVB.

  • SOFR futures at trading are up to 12.5 ticks lower, Euribor futures up to 10 ticks lower and SONIA futures up to 9.5 ticks lower.
  • In terms of what is priced in this means around 10bp for the May Fed meeting (up from around 6bp at Friday's close), before the curve then inverts. By June the 10bp has been reversed and by year-end around 75bp of cuts from current levels is priced, around 85bp overall (from 92bp / 86bp at Friday's close).
  • For the ECB markets now price 17bp for the May meeting and a cumulative peak of 42bp by September (from 36bp Friday's close).
  • For the BOE, markets look for 19bp for May with a peak of 32bp by August (from 27bp Friday's close).
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