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AUSTRALIA: CBA and Westpac on November Inflation Data

AUSTRALIA
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  • **CBA: Headline inflation is expected to have lifted to 2.6%/yr in November. This configuration of a solid lift in headline CPI but a slightly lower core inflation figure predominantly reflects the inflationary impact of the gradual unwind of the electricity rebates. This unwind will occur through to July 2025, as currently legislated. CBA expect the print to confirm Q4 24 core inflation will undershoot the RBA’s latest forecasts.
  • **Westpac’s near-cast for the November Monthly CPI Indicator is 0.4% in the month to be up 2.2% in the year. Post the November Monthly CPI Indicator, not only will we have two thirds of the data for those prices that are surveyed monthly, but we will also have an update on the services prices that are surveyed only once a quarter. The various state and federal government rebates will remain a key focus, and the November estimate will set a solid foundation for our Q4 near-cast. Westpac are also keen to get a further update on rents and dwellings inflation.
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  • **CBA: Headline inflation is expected to have lifted to 2.6%/yr in November. This configuration of a solid lift in headline CPI but a slightly lower core inflation figure predominantly reflects the inflationary impact of the gradual unwind of the electricity rebates. This unwind will occur through to July 2025, as currently legislated. CBA expect the print to confirm Q4 24 core inflation will undershoot the RBA’s latest forecasts.
  • **Westpac’s near-cast for the November Monthly CPI Indicator is 0.4% in the month to be up 2.2% in the year. Post the November Monthly CPI Indicator, not only will we have two thirds of the data for those prices that are surveyed monthly, but we will also have an update on the services prices that are surveyed only once a quarter. The various state and federal government rebates will remain a key focus, and the November estimate will set a solid foundation for our Q4 near-cast. Westpac are also keen to get a further update on rents and dwellings inflation.