CBC-Conservatives' Poilievre To Call Confidence Vote In Gov't Next Week

CBC is reporting that leader of the main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) Pierre Poilievre will introduce a no-confidence motion in PM Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) gov't next week in an effort to trigger a snap general election. The motion will be debated in the House of Commons before a final vote on Wednesday 25 September. Should the motion fail Trudeau's gov't will stagger on requiring outside support on a vote-by-vote basis, but if it passes snap elections will take place this autumn.

• Following the latest by-elections on 16 Sep, the LPC holds 154 seats in the 338-member Commons. The CPC sits with 119, the regionalist pro-independence Bloc Quebecois (BQ) on 33, and the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) on 25. As such, should all three of these vote against Trudeau it would be sufficient to bring the gov't down.
• NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who withdrew his party from a confidence and supply agreement with the LPC in August, has not confirmed if his party would vote against the gov't in any confidence vote. It is a similar case with BQ.
• Both parties could see it in their interest to demand significant concessions from the gov't in exchange for support or abstention. Federal opinion polling shows the CPC on course for a comfortable majority in the next election. The NDP and BQ are more likely to influence their chosen policies with a minority LPC gov't reliant on their support rather than a majority CPC administration.