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CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

UK DATA
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UK CBI Order Books Balance fell more than expected printing -32 (vs -20 consensus, -18 prior) in July, again remaining below the long run average of -13%.

  • Expectations for average selling price for next three months softened to 2 (from 20 in June) - making it the lowest reading since December 2020, and below the long term average of 7 for first time since December 2023.
  • This drop in average selling price expectations (if sustained in the coming months) will be welcomed by the MPC. One of the concerns recently has been that core goods disinflation will soon come to an end. If this is not the case, services inflation may not need to be as low as previously expected to keep inflation around target levels. However, there remain upside risks from supply chain and shipping disruptions.
  • Survey conducted between 25 June and 12 July, with 257 manufacturing firms responding.


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UK CBI Order Books Balance fell more than expected printing -32 (vs -20 consensus, -18 prior) in July, again remaining below the long run average of -13%.

  • Expectations for average selling price for next three months softened to 2 (from 20 in June) - making it the lowest reading since December 2020, and below the long term average of 7 for first time since December 2023.
  • This drop in average selling price expectations (if sustained in the coming months) will be welcomed by the MPC. One of the concerns recently has been that core goods disinflation will soon come to an end. If this is not the case, services inflation may not need to be as low as previously expected to keep inflation around target levels. However, there remain upside risks from supply chain and shipping disruptions.
  • Survey conducted between 25 June and 12 July, with 257 manufacturing firms responding.