CBI Survey Signals More Robust April Retail Sales

UK MAY CBI EXPECTED RETAL SALES -7 ; APR +9

• The CBI Distributive Trends Survey found UK retail sales edged up in the year to April, with sales volumes described as "good" for the time of year and year-on-year sales expansive for the first time in 2023.
• This is seen as short-lived, as retail sales are expected to then fall again in May with spending appetite remaining downtrodden.
• Despite retail sales showing tentative signs of stabilising, weak consumer confidence and persistently high inflation rates will likely see consumer spending remain muted for the near future.
• After contracting in March, ONS data showed UK sales rose by overall by +0.6% in Q1, implying a +0.03pp contribution to GDP in Q1 (after a -0.05pp Q4 contribution). ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan said: "the broader trend is less subdued, ... [yet] the three-month picture shows positive growth for the first time since August 2021."