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CBR Eyes Potential MOEX Reopening Next Week, Default Probability Steady at 80%

  • FX/FI MARKETS (FX markets open, Stocks closed)
  • Currency markets will open again today, while stocks remain closed – although the CBR is exploring a possible reopening for stocks next week.
  • Global risk sentiment soured yesterday as Russia-Ukraine talks failed to make any progress (as largely expected), forcing stocks to give back a portion of Wednesday’s gains.
  • Russia’s implied default probability via 5Y CDS metrics has stayed stable at 80% in the fast few days, despite promises to make payments in RUB.
  • Focus is on Tuesday’s coupon, after which, a 30-day grace period is initiated before the default is confirmed – making 15 April ‘D-Day’ for the first potential default.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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