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CBR Seen Continuing to Unwind Emergency Rate Hike

RUSSIA
  • CBR are expected to continue to unwind their emergency 1050bps rate hike, with a 100bps rate cut today to 10.00%. Stabilising inflation expectations and a strengthening RUB give the bank ample room for rate cuts, while expectations of economic contraction this year provide the justification. Conviction remains low among the sell-side, however, with some seeing larger than consensus cuts of 200bps, while others see no change today as the bank adopt a more cautious stance on policy.
  • Full MNI Preview including summary of sell-side views here: https://marketnews.com/mni-cbr-preview-june-2022-rallying-rub-gives-cbr-room
  • Western leaders continue to denounce the trial and death sentence handed down to two British and one Moroccan fighter caught by Russian forces in Ukraine, with US’ Blinken commenting this morning “We call on Russia and its proxies to respect international humanitarian law, including the rights and protections afforded prisoners of war.
  • In an event with the New York Times, Treasury Secretary Yellen commented on possible further restrictions on Russian trade, stating that a ban on European and UK firms insuring tanker shipments of Russian oil could limit Russian energy revenues, adding that the UK is “very likely” to go along with the new restrictions.
  • Russia have reportedly reactivated a stimulus package similar to that used during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the Kremlin allocating funds to increase minimum wages and increase pension payments by 10%, according to BOFIT.
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