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CBR Seen Moving Against RUB Rally

RUSSIA
  • The CBR are seen moving on rates at today’s emergency meeting, with markets expecting a cut of 250bps (although, sell-side views are broad, with some expecting a cut of as much as 500bps to 9.00%). A move on rates could be accompanied by a loosening of capital restrictions, as authorities in Moscow begin to work against the broad appreciation of the RUB – which is now seen as a matter of “special attention” for the government.
  • Politico this morning write that European leaders are eyeing a last minute compromise on further sanctions against Russia – seeing a deal as possible to get Hungary on board with a sixth sanctions package against Russia before the summit of EU heads of state and government starts on Monday. The deal could see the oil embargo split between seabound and pipelines.
  • Russia’s inflation release yesterday showed W/W CPI dropping by 0.02% - the first decline for the number since last year, which acted to slow YTD CPI to 11.82% from 11.84%.
  • Ukraine’s Zelensky – as expected – wholesale rejected the concept of ceding territory to Russia as part of a broader ceasefire/peace package as the Ukrainian leader responded to comments from former US Sec of State Kissinger.
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