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CBRT Cite Upside Risks to Inflation Expectations

TURKEY
Highlights from the CBRT meeting summary:
  • Leading indicators suggest that the significant monthly price increases coming through the channels of demand, wages, exchange rates, taxes and deteriorating pricing behavior will also continue in August. Accordingly, it is estimated that annual inflation will also increase significantly.
  • It is anticipated that, at the end of the year, inflation will hover close to the upper bound of the forecast range provided in the Inflation Report.
  • Turkish lira commercial loan rates increased by 632 basis points to 31.3% as the first tier for TL commercial loan was removed and the policy rate was increased.
  • Turkish lira deposit rates, which started to decline in this period, stood at 24.9% in the week ending August 18.
  • Owing to the policy rate hike and the recent steps taken as part of the simplification of the macroprudential framework, it is expected that the demand for Turkish lira instruments will increase, loan rates and deposit rates will rise concurrently and the monetary transmission mechanism will be strengthened.
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