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CBRT To Keep Status Quo Despite Surging Inflation Expectations

TURKEY
  • The CBRT meeting on July 21 and is expected to keep its 1W repo rate steady at 14% despite surging inflation expectations.
    • Economic data showed earlier this month that inflation expectations for the next 12 months have increased to 40.2% in July, up from 38% the previous month.
  • In addition, the 'deep' negative 10Y real yield has been weighing on the Lira, which keeps reaching new lows against the Dollar.
  • TRY is the weakest performing currency among the EM world, down nearly 25% against the US Dollar.
  • The chart below shows that Turkey currently offer the lowest 10Y real yield among the EM world, nearly 60% when we adjust by the inflation rate (79% in June).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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