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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
Germany's centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) have recorded a sustained bounce in federal-level opinion polls in the last week of May and first week of June, something that has continued in the aftermath of the party's strong result in the regional election held in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on 6 June.
- While the CDU fell behind the Greens in April amidst a corruption scandal surrounding some Bundestag members, a bitter struggle between Laschet and Bavarian Minister-President Markus Soeder for the CDU-CSU nomination, and a slow vaccine rollout, these factors are now in the rear-view mirror. The CDU and CSU have (if somewhat reluctantly) rallied around Laschet, the PPE scandal has gone from front pages, and a ramp-up in the vaccine rollout has improved the public mood, benefiting the incumbent CDU.
Chart 1. Germany Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and Trendline (6-Poll Moving Average)
Source: FGW, INSA, Forsa, Civey, Infratest dimap, Kantar, YouGov, Allensbach, GMS, MNI
- Based on recent polling, the most likely coalition after the September federal election would be a CDU-Green coalition under CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet. However, there remains the possibility that the CDU could be ousted by a 'traffic light' coalition of the environmentalist Greens, centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP).
Chart 2. Potential Post-Election Coalitions
Source: dawum.de, MNI. Those in top row would command a majority, those in red would not.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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