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Germany's centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) have recorded a sustained bounce in federal-level opinion polls in the last week of May and first week of June, something that has continued in the aftermath of the party's strong result in the regional election held in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on 6 June.

  • While the CDU fell behind the Greens in April amidst a corruption scandal surrounding some Bundestag members, a bitter struggle between Laschet and Bavarian Minister-President Markus Soeder for the CDU-CSU nomination, and a slow vaccine rollout, these factors are now in the rear-view mirror. The CDU and CSU have (if somewhat reluctantly) rallied around Laschet, the PPE scandal has gone from front pages, and a ramp-up in the vaccine rollout has improved the public mood, benefiting the incumbent CDU.

Chart 1. Germany Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and Trendline (6-Poll Moving Average)

Source: FGW, INSA, Forsa, Civey, Infratest dimap, Kantar, YouGov, Allensbach, GMS, MNI

  • Based on recent polling, the most likely coalition after the September federal election would be a CDU-Green coalition under CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet. However, there remains the possibility that the CDU could be ousted by a 'traffic light' coalition of the environmentalist Greens, centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP).
Chart 2. Potential Post-Election Coalitions

Source: dawum.de, MNI. Those in top row would command a majority, those in red would not.