GERMANY: CDU Falls To Lowest Forsa Poll Score Since Sep '23 Amid AfD Furore

The latest opinion poll from Forsa shows the main opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) recording 28% support. This is the lowest backing for the Union in a Forsa poll since September 2023. While generic polling shows the Union is still in pole position to emerge as the largest party in the 23 Feb federal election, the fallout from two high-profile Bundestag votes in late January could yet have an impact on vote shares.

• Forsa: Union: 28% (-2), AfD: 20%, SPD: 16%, Green: 15% (+1), LINKE: 5% (+1), FDP: 4%, BSW: 4% (+1), Others: 8% (-1). 28 Jan-3 Feb, chgs w/21-27 Jan. 2,503 respondents.
• The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) voted alongside the CDU (and others) in votes on 28 and 31 Jan that sought to restrict migrant entries into Germany.
• Merz reiterated at a party congress on 3 Feb that he would never countenance going into gov't with the AfD post-election. These comments came as thousands protested in Berlin against the AfD and the CDU for breaching the 'firewall' that has for years seen all other parties avoid voting with the AfD.
• Political betting markets continue to see a Union-Social Democrat 'grand coalition' as the most likely outcome of the election, with data from Polymarket showing a 55% implied probability of that outcome. A Union-SPD-Green 'Kenya' coalition has a 12% implied probability of coming to fruition, with 8.6% for a Union-SPD-FDP 'Germany' coalition, 7% for a Union-Green 'black-green' coalition, and 6.3% for a Union-AfD gov't.

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average