CE3 FX A Function Of Global Sentiment Amid Limited Local Intraday Drivers

Performance of CE3 FX on an intraday basis continues to be driven by global sentiment. The sustained move higher in the USD index, to its highest level since mid-Feb, initially led to weakness across the EMEA region at the start of the session. A reversion of dollar gains on the back of some softer-than-expected US data has since resulted in HUF, PLN and CZK all swinging into positive territory against the EUR. Nevertheless, the HUF underperforms its peers at the margins given the still-bearish outlook on the currency. PLN, meanwhile, leads gains in CE3 ahead of the NBP meeting next week.

• Technically, trend conditions in EURHUF remain bullish with the recent pullback considered corrective. The bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows signals scope for an extension towards the 400.00 handle and key resistance at 402.45, the Mar 20 2023 high. Initial firm support lies at 394.31, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this support would expose the 50-day EMA at 390.87.
• EURPLN is in consolidation mode. Trend conditions are unchanged and bearish with recent weakness reinforcing this set-up. The cross on Mar 11, cleared key support and the bear trigger at 4.2935, the Dec 13 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started in September last year and opens 4.2371, the Feb 14 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4.3240, the 50-day EMA.
• EURCZK sits within a familiar range. A break above Feb 15 high of 25.519 is needed to reignite bullish momentum, while a dip through the 50-DMA at 25.186 and round figure support of 25.000 could turn focus to Jan 2 high of 24.867.