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VIEW: ANZ: Purchasing Power Under Attack


(Z1) Corrective Bounce


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  • EURHUF ended last week on a firm note and traded higher yesterday. The cross has cleared the 50-day EMA and resistance at 352.11, Aug 27 high. The current bullish cycle appears intact and further gains seem likely. The focus is on 356.48 next, 61.8% of the Jul 26 - Sep 6 sell-off. Initial firm support has been defined at 348.55, Sep 16 low.
  • EURPLN continues to climb and has cleared the 4.6000 handle. Note too that resistance at 4.6017, Jul 20 high has been breached. This strengthens a bullish theme and paves the way for a stronger climb towards 4.6224, 76.4% of the Mar 29 - Jun 7 downleg. The 50-day EMA at 4.5541 marks initial support.
  • USDZAR traded higher again yesterday. The pair has tested resistance at the former bull channel base drawn from the Jun 7 low - the line intersects at 14.8812 today. Note too that 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 10 downleg intersects at 14.8864 and this also represents a key short-term resistance. A breach of this 14.8812/8864 zone would strengthen bullish conditions and open 15.0807 next, the 76.4% retracement. Initial support is seen at 14.5220, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDTRY maintains a firmer tone above 8.6000. The pair has defined a S/T support at 8.2642, Sep 2 low. Price last week cleared the 50-day EMA and the follow through signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at 8.8008, Feb 2 high and the top of the current broad range. For bears, a break of 8.2642 - the range base - is required to confirm a resumption of bearish pressure. Initial support is at 8.4703, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDRUB has rebounded from last week's lows. A near-term key support has been defined at 72.2462, Sep 15 low. A break would resume bearish pressure and open 72.0405, Jun 25 low ahead of key support at 71.5542, Jun 11 low. Key near-term resistance is at 73.5309, Sep 8 high. A breach would open 74.5861, Aug 20 high.