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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDRUB Bearish Engulfing Still In Play

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF gains stalled last week just ahead of the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 361.61 today. This represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break, if seen, would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 363.78, 61.8% of the Dec 24 - Jan 13 downleg. Moving average studies continue to suggest the broader trend remains bearish though and that recent gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 350.88, the Jan 13 low.
  • EURPLN is trading near its recent highs - the cross recovered recently from 4.5088, the Jan 20 low. The move higher has resulted in a break of the 20-and 50-day EMAs. An extension higher would signal scope for a rally towards 4.6180, 23.6% retracement of the downleg between Nov 23 - Jan 20. Gains are still considered corrective though and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 4.5088 bear trigger.
  • USDZAR recovered last week from the recent low of 15.0669, Jan 21 low. The move higher means trendline support at 15.0178 remains intact - the trendline is drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. This level represents a key support and a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. The pair has traded above the 50-day EMA and short-term conditions have improved for bulls. Sights are on the 16.00 handle next.
  • USDTRY is still trading sideways in a very tight range at the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB faced resistance late last week. The sharp sell-off suggests a short-term top has been defined at 80.4155, Jan 26 high. In pattern terms, Thursday’s candle formation is a bearish engulfing reversal. A deeper pullback would open 76.7730 the 20-day EMA and 75.2951, the 50-day EMA. Dips are considered corrective though. The bull trigger is at 81.4155.
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