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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDTRY Bull Run Accelerates

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF traded lower Monday as it extended the pullback from last week’s peak of 398.65, Jun 1 high. This means that - for now - key resistance at 399.64, the Mar 7 high, remains intact. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. The cross has tested levels below the 20-day EMA. An extension lower would open the 50-day EMA at 382.62. The latest retracement is considered corrective and the 50-day average marks an important support.
  • EURPLN is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The cross remains in bear mode condition and the recent sideways move appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Price has recently traded through the 4.60 handle - a clear breach of this level and a continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open 4.50 and support at 4.4826, the Feb 16 low. Key resistance has been defined at 4.7279, Apr 26 high. Initial resistance is at 4.6351, the 50-day EMA.
  • USDZAR remains in a short-term downtrend. The pair has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and Monday confirmed a break of support at 15.4112, May 4 low. This signals scope for weakness towards 15.1364, 61.8% of the Mar 31 - May 16 bull leg. The current retracement is still considered corrective though. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 16.3237, May 16 high and the bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 15.8655, May 26 high.
  • USDTRY continues to climb and the bull run has accelerated today. The move higher reinforces bullish conditions. The 17.00 handle has been cleared and this opens 18.00 next ahead of last year's major high at 18.3633, on Dec 20. Firm support lies at 16.0965, the 20-day EMA.
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