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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Remains Above Trendline Support

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF remains soft. The 50-day EMA - at 360.59 - represents a key short-term resistance and trend conditions remain bearish. This week’s continuation lower refocuses attention on 350.88, the Jan 13 low. This is a key support where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 348.55, the Sep 16, 2021 low. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA is required to alter the picture.
  • EURPLN maintains a softer tone. The rejection at 4.6013, Jan 31 high, suggests the recent corrective bounce is over. Attention is on the 4.5088 bear trigger, Jan 20 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4.5010, the Sep 1 low. Key resistance is at 4.6013.
  • USDZAR continues to consolidate and remains above 15.0669, the Jan 21 low. Trendline support, at 15.0556 today, remains intact - the trendline is drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. This line represents a key support and a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 15.7559, the Jan 31 high. A break would be positive.
  • USDTRY remains in a tight range around the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. The 50-day EMA at 12.9315 represents initial support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB maintains a weaker tone following the reversal from 80.4155, the Jan 26 high and the follow-through this week. A bearish engulfing candle formation on Jan 27 is still in play. This pattern provided an early warning of a short-term shift in sentiment. The pullback has opened 75.5021 next, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would expose 74.3819, the Jan 12 low. The bull trigger is at 81.4155.
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