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Central Bank Decision, Government Support Measures In Focus

CHILE
  • As of writing, all five surveyed analysts on Bloomberg are expecting the BCCh to hike the overnight rate target by 50 basis points to 9.5%.
  • However, despite the latest BCCh communication signalling a smaller than 75bp hike, recent CLP weakness has prompted some other analysts to forecast more aggressive action.
  • JPMorgan explain “the still-elevated June inflation prints when adjusting for seasonality, the slower than expected activity adjustment in 2Q22 (note they revised lower 2H22 and 2023 GDP), the early June data showing resilience in consumption proxies (new car sales and imports), and additional FX passthrough amid de-anchored inflation expectations calls for the monetary authority to abandon again its forward guidance and hike more than they signaled a month ago.”
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views will be published tomorrow.
  • As a reminder, Finance Minister Mario Marcel, in a televised press conference announced that Chile’s government are monitoring the exchange rate situation and will define support measures to alleviate the effect that the weakness of the peso may have on local prices.
    • “There will be more clarity on the measures next week,” Marcel said.
    • Local political uncertainty has been decreasing and its effect on the exchange rate is going to decrease as the September plebiscite approaches.
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