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Central Bank Decisions Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • POLAND: The National Bank of Poland are widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.75% on Wednesday for its fourth consecutive meeting. The baseline scenario among most sell-side analysts is for the NBP to stand pat on rates until at least March when the next set of macroeconomic projections are released. Meanwhile, sticky inflation will warrant the central bank’s cautious approach to rate cuts at this juncture.
  • CZECHIA: The Czech National Bank will meet on Thursday and will present an updated set of macroeconomic forecasts. While expectations had been firm that the 25bp cutting pace be maintained from December, dovish rhetoric ahead of the CNB blackout period prompted a shift in sentiment among analysts, some of whom now see higher odds of an outsized rate cut.
  • LATAM: Also on Thursday, Mexico’s central bank will likely keep rates unchanged at 11.25%, although analysts will carefully monitor the statement for any guidance on potential easing later in Q1. In Peru, the BCRP are expected to maintain the gradual pace of easing, cutting the reference rate by 25bps to 6.25%. However, further progress on inflation has sparked debate among analysts as to whether the easing pace should be accelerated.
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