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Central Bank Expected On Hold, May Soften Language

BRAZIL
  • Brazilian assets may trade tentatively on Wednesday as market participants await the June BCB decision and statement. Although a relatively dovish pivot from the central bank is expected in the short-term, concerns they may keep the door closed to a rate cut in August have been growing among members of Lula’s economic team in recent weeks, according to two government officials with knowledge of the discussions.
  • Consensus believes the Copom will keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75%. However, a continued decline for IPCA inflation figures and the substantial improvement for inflation expectations across all time horizons point to the BCB board softening its language in this week’s statement.
  • COPOM options negotiated at B3 imply roughly 75% odds of a rate cut in August with most of the ones betting on this early cut seeing a timid 25bps Selic cut.
  • Separately, Brazil is considering selling its first-ever sustainable bond as soon as September, according to a person familiar with the matter.
    • The nation’s debut in global ESG debt markets, which has been anticipated for years, may follow an investor roadshow in late August or early September.
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