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Central Bank On Hold At 7.75%, In Line With Expectations

PERU
  • The central bank committee agreed to maintain the reference rate at 7.75% at the March meeting, in line with all surveyed analysts forecasts prior to the decision.
  • The statement reiterated that this outcome does not necessarily mean the end of the tightening cycle and that future adjustments in the reference rate will be conditional on new information on inflation and its determinants, including the macroeconomic effects of recent social unrest.
  • Interestingly, the statement does include that the BCRP estimates “the monthly rate for March would be higher than in previous months due to conjunctural and seasonal factors”. Analysts note that this acknowledgement decreases the likelihood of a high March CPI print affecting the BCRP’s reaction function for April’s decision. After this, a downward trend in year-on-year inflation is projected from March with a projected return to target range in the Q4 2023.
  • The statement acknowledges that 12-month inflation expectations decreased from 4.62% in January to 4.29% in February, and the expectation of inflation for 2023 also decreased from 4.73 to 4.50%. On the activity front, most of the leading indicators and expectations about the economy recovered in February, although it remains in the pessimistic range.
  • At midday local time, the BCRP will hold a press conference to discuss Thursday’s decision. The central bank board’s next monetary policy meeting/decision will take place on April 13, 2023.

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