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Central bank pricing update

GLOBAL
  • ECB: There is now around 36bp priced for this week's meeting (still not at yesterday's intraday low of 32bp but down from around 46bp earlier today and around 49bp on Thursday) as market's are back pricing a 25bp hike as more likely than the telegraphed 50bp hike this week. There are now still 77bp of cumulative hikes priced by the December meeting, but this is almost 50bp off the day's highs.
  • Fed: Markets now pricing in 16bp for next week's meeting (above yesterday's low of around 12bp but down from around 21bp earlier today and from around 42bp Thursday). There are no hikes fully priced in for this year any more. Markets are pricing in around 80bp of cuts from the current level this year (around 100bp from the peak this year).
  • BOE: Markets now price around 15bp for next week's meeting (from around 26bp on Thursday) with a cumulative peak of 32bp of hikes priced by September (around a third of the c. 90bp on Thursday).
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