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Central bank pricing update

GLOBAL
  • ECB: There is now around 37.5bp priced for today's meeting (around a 50% probability of 25bp vs 50bp down from around 49bp on Thursday). There are now still 87bp of cumulative hikes priced by the October meeting.
  • Fed: Markets now pricing in 16bp for next week's meeting (above yesterday's low of around 9bp but below yesterday's intraday high of 22bp and from around 42bp Thursday). The curve peaks around the March meeting with 31bp priced (at points we have seen no hikes fully priced for this year). Markets are then pricing in around 62bp of cuts from the current level this year (around 94bp from the peak this year).
  • BOE: Markets now price around 15bp for next week's meeting (yesterday's range 8-18bp from around 26bp on Thursday). There is a cumulative peak of 37bp of hikes priced by August (more than 50bp lower than the c. 90bp peak seen on Thursday).
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