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Central banks take centre stage

BONDS
  • Central banks take centre stage with the FOMC decision released later today and the BOE decision released tomorrow. Against this backdrop we also have US ADP employment today (ahead of Friday's NFP report) and US factory orders data.
  • Markets this morning have continued yesterday's trends (despite a pause through the Asia session). So we have Bunds, gilts and Treasuries all moving higher while we have seen the short sterling and Eurodollar strips move a little higher, too.
  • With a $15B/month taper all but certain to be announced at the November FOMC, most attention is on the Fed's communication surrounding inflation dynamics, and any further signals on the rate hike outlook. Since the September meeting, markets have shifted forward expectations for Fed hikes with two now priced in 2022 (prior to the September meeting the first was priced in 2023). For the full MNI Fed Preview click here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-6+ today at 131-05+ with 10y UST yields down -2.8bp at 1.523% and 2y yields down -0.3bp at 0.449%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.28 today at 169.61 with 10y Bund yields down -2.4bp at -0.190% and Schatz yields down -0.7bp at -0.708%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.20 today at 125.34 with 10y yields down -2.3bp at 1.012% and 2y yields down -2.1bp at 0.637%.

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