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Still In Consolidation Mode

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  • With the Senate expected to vote on the spending cap bill tomorrow; local assets are widely expected to be guided by global sentiment tied to Covid-19 developments, given the lack of political drivers on Monday.
  • BRL remains in a very narrow range on Monday as well as mixed performance across the DI curve.
  • Copom decision next Wednesday, December 8, will be the short-term focus where markets continue to expect another 150 bp hike to the Selic rate to 9.25%. November IPCA inflation print will then be posted on December 10.
  • Following this morning’s BCB focus survey, it is worth noting that this is the first time Brazil economists forecast that inflation will end next year at the upper limit of their tolerance range. The continued contamination of medium-term inflation expectations will likely continue to pressure the Copom at upcoming meetings.
    • 1730GMT/1230ET: October central government budget balance is due, with a surplus of 25.8b reais expected.
    • Unemployment rate figures and formal job creation are both scheduled for Tuesday before Q3 GDP numbers are posted on Thursday this week.