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Centre-Right Leading Polls Ahead Of Important Regional Elections

ITALY

Italy's two most populous and economically significant regions, Lombardy centred on Italy's business hub Milan and Lazio around the capital Rome, elect their regional presidents on Sunday 12 February. The centre-right coalition (CDX) including PM Giorgia Meloni's right-wing Brothers of Italy (FdI), Deputy PM Matteo Salvini's populist League, and the centre-right Forza Italia (FI) of former PM Silvio Berlusconi looks on course to retain power in Lombardy and win the regional presidency from the centre-left coalition (CSX) in Lazio according to polls.

  • Retaining/winning both regions would be a notable boon for Meloni's fledgling gov't, in place since the September 2022 general election. Lombardy has long been a stronghold for the political right, having been led by CDX presidents since direct elections began in 1995. Lazio, however, has not had a regional president from the centre-right since the centre-left Democratic Party-led coalition won the 2013 election.
  • Incumbent Lombardy President Attilio Fontana (League) and independent CDX candidate Francesco Rocca both lead in candidate polling. The coalition receiving a plurality of the vote gets an extra allocation of seats, making the formation of a majority administration more simple than if it was a purely proportional system.
Chart 1. Candidate Opinion Polling, %

Source: Quorum, SWG, Noto, IZI, Ipsos, Index, Winpoll, Tecne, BiDiMedia, MNI

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