Centrist Christodoulides Favourite To Win 12 Feb Presidential Run-Off

The second round of the presidential election takes place on Sunday 12 February following the first round on 5 Feb. Independent former foreign minister Nikos Christodoulides, backed by the centrist DIKO and DIPA parties will contest the run-off against former Cypriot ambassador to the UN Andreas Mavroyiannis, an independent who is supported by the left-wing AKEL.

• Christodoulides won 32.0% of the first-round vote to Mavroiannis’ 29.6%, a stronger showing for the latter than polls had indicated. This eliminated from the contest Averof Neofytou from the governing centre-right DISY of President Nicos Anastasiades. Neofytou came third in the first round with 26.1%.
• Second-round opinion polling shows Christodoulides as the strong favourite, with his support in January coming around the 61-63% level compared to 36-38% for Mavroiannias. Much of the support from Neofyotou is expected to flip to Christodoulides in the run-off. Indeed, until the campaign Christodoulides was a member of DISY, serving as Anastasiades' foreign minister for four years.
• With a Christodoulides presidency looking probable, the likelihood of the Cypriot gov't and that of the Turkish-occupied north is diminished. While a centrist, the parties backing his presidency are Cypriot nationalists opposed to increased flexibility in talks with the north Cypriot gov't. For its part, the Turkish north has in charge Ersin Tatar, a hardliner supportive of a two-state solution, which makes a continued stalemate in Cyprus the most likely scenario for the coming years.