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Chair Powell Says Committee No Longer Forecasting Recession

FED
  • Q: Has the staff changed its view on recession likelihood?
    • A: Staff are no longer forecasting a recession given the resilience of the economy recently. Now forecast a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year.* I would say there's a pathway [to a soft landing].
  • Q: How close do you need to get with the inflation numbers coming down, to stop hiking?
    • A: The idea we would keep hiking until inflation gets to 2% would be a prescription to go way past the target, that's clearly not the way to think about it. The median participant is cutting rates next year. If inflation is coming down credibly, sustainably, we don't need to be at a restrictive level any more. We can move back to a neutral level and then below neutral at a certain point. We'd really want to be sure inflation is coming down sustainably. You'd stop raising long before you got to 2% inflation. We don't see ourselves getting back to 2% inflation until 2025 or so.
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