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Chair Powell Would Not Reference Soft Landing As Baseline Expectation

FED
  • Q: With GDP forecast at 1.5% in 2024 just below potential, you are getting more done on inflation at less cost, does that represent a change in how you think inflation works?
    • A: Yes it's a good thing that we've seen meaningful rebalancing in the labor market without an increase in unemployment, with rebalancing in job openings and supply side etc. I'd think that there will have to be some softening in the labor market that may come through more supply. Supply can help the labor market to achieve a better balance.
    • What we've been seeing is progress without higher unemployment for now.
    • I've always thought that a soft landing was a plausible outcome. It's also possible that if the path is narrowed and widened this may be decided by factors that are outside our control, but I do think it's possible, and this is why we're in a position to move carefully. I wouldn't want to handicap the likelihood of it though.
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