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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessCheaper Ahead Of RBA Decision On Tuesday, Awaiting US PCE Deflator
ACGBs are currently trading weaker (YM -10.0 & XM -10.5), nearing the session lows observed in Sydney. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of US PCE deflator data later today. The market consensus expects the headline deflator to show a monthly increase of +0.1%, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures. However, the Core PCE deflator, which is closely watched by the Fed, is anticipated to register a monthly increase of +0.3% following the +0.4% reading in April. The annual core PCE deflator is expected to remain unchanged at +4.7%.
- Cash ACGBs are 9-10bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at +16bp.
- Swap rates are 9bp higher with EFPs little changed.
- The bills strip bear steepens with pricing -4 to -13.
- The local calendar sees Judo Bank PMI data (Jun F), MI Inflation Gauge (Jun), Home Loans (May), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (Jun) and Building Approvals (May) on Monday ahead of the RBA policy decision on Tuesday. BBG consensus is currently expecting a no-change outcome although it is far from unanimous.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-8bp firmer across meetings today. The market attaches a 53% chance of a 25bp hike next week versus 31% pre-retail sales data.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.