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Chicago Business Barometer Finds Weak H1 2023 Growth Expectations

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In December, the Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, asked firms "How do you see your business activity growing in the first half of 2023, by percent?"

  • Firms’ growth outlooks for 2023 varied.
  • The majority (around 57%) expected 0-5% growth in business activity in H1 2023, whilst a substantially smaller approx. 9% are anticipating a 5-10% expansion. Just 3% expect stronger growth of 10%+.
  • Close to one-third (31%) of respondents forecast no H1 2023 business-activity growth.
  • This is in line with weaker national growth outlooks. The Federal Reserve's median GDP forecast for 2023 was downgraded to +0.5% growth in the December projections (from +1.2% in the previous September forecasts).


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In December, the Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, asked firms "How do you see your business activity growing in the first half of 2023, by percent?"

  • Firms’ growth outlooks for 2023 varied.
  • The majority (around 57%) expected 0-5% growth in business activity in H1 2023, whilst a substantially smaller approx. 9% are anticipating a 5-10% expansion. Just 3% expect stronger growth of 10%+.
  • Close to one-third (31%) of respondents forecast no H1 2023 business-activity growth.
  • This is in line with weaker national growth outlooks. The Federal Reserve's median GDP forecast for 2023 was downgraded to +0.5% growth in the December projections (from +1.2% in the previous September forecasts).