US DATA
The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI descended 3.5 points to 37.9 in April. This is the fifth consecutive monthly fall, pushing the index to its lowest levels since November 2022. We also note that this print is 7.5 points below the 2023 average.
- Four out of five subcomponents fell. With the move driven lower significantly by falls in New Orders, Production, Employment, and to a lesser extent Supplier Deliveries, whilst Order Backlogs offset some of this differentiation.
- In particular, Production was down for the fifth consecutive month by 6.9 points to 35.5, which is similar levels to November 2022.
- New Orders dropped by 5.1 points to a similar level as September 2023 and the lowest reading since November 2022. This was due to an increase in respondents reporting fewer new orders (around 40%), again similar to September 2023 levels.
- Employment stalled 8.5 points to 38.6 more than reversing the rebound seen last month and second lowest since the beginnings of the pandemic. This was due to both hiring remaining subdued, and the proportion of respondents reporting lower employment at the highest level since July 2023.
- Meanwhile, Order Backlogs increased 6.2 points, although they remain below the average of the prior 12 months of 36.4.
- Prices Paid rose 6.7 points to 69.3, the highest level since August 2023, and 5.7 points above the prior 12-month average of 63.6. This was driven by the highest proportion of respondents reporting rising prices since August 2023.
- Inventories increased by 6.3 points, the highest since November 2023, more than reversing last month’s decline, which was driven by delays to planned restocking.
- Lastly, Supplier Deliveries edged down for the third consecutive month by 0.8 points.
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