Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, ticked up by 1.3 points to 42.8 in July, the second consecutive monthly increase. However, with the exception of Prices Paid, all of the sub-indices remain in contractive territory (sub-50).
New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs all moved higher in July while Employment and Supplier Deliveries deteriorated further in contractive territory.
Source: MNI / ISM Chicago
NEW ORDERS, PRODUCTION, PRICES PAID, ORDER BACKLOGS INCREASE - BUT DETAILS LIMIT THE POSITIVITY
The biggest contributor to the increase in the headline index was New Orders, which rose 3.4 points. However, this masked the fact that the proportion of respondents reporting an increase in new orders in June was actually the lowest of the year.
Production advanced 2.5 points to 45.1. There was a similar story to New Orders, with the proportion of respondents citing higher production the same level as in June, but fewer noting reduced production.
Prices Paid increased 8.6 points to 62.1, with broadly the same proportion reporting higher prices in July as in June, but only 4% of respondents seeing lower prices – the smallest proportion since July 2022.
Order Backlogs picked up 2.7 points. This was despite only 4% of respondents reporting an increase – joint-lowest (with June 1980) in the history of the series (which goes back to 1946).
EMPLOYMENT, SUPPLIER DELIVERIES AND INVENTORIES ALL LOWER
Employment dropped -5.9 points. It recorded just the second reading below 40 this year.
Supplier Deliveries were a further -4.0 points lower, the lowest level since June 2009. This generally reflected further easing in supply chains, but also points to general weakness in the economy.
Inventories fell -4.0 points, with the reading only subceded once since October 2009 (in March 2020).
The survey ran from 1 July to 18 July 2023.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.