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Chicago PMI Adds Significant Downside Risk To ISM

US DATA
  • The regional Fed manufacturing surveys were mixed in their respective September reports although on balance showed a continuation of the downside risk to the ISM survey that has been the case since June.
  • However, today's 6.5pt slide to 45.7 in the Chicago PMI, which has closely tracked recent ISM movements, adds support for a sub-50 ISM reading, contrary to consensus for a decline from 52.8 to 52.4 for Monday’s report – see charts.

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