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FED: Chicago's Goolsbee Still Sees Rates "Fair Bit" Lower Despite "Sobering" CPI

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Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (dove, 2025 FOMC voter) tells the NY Times that the January CPI report was "sobering". While he told the NYT that seasonal effects may have been at play as usual in January, and echoed Fed Chair Powell's post-CPI comments by saying that he would not read too much into a single inflation report, he also said “there’s no question, if we got multiple months like this, then the job is clearly not done." 

  • Nonetheless, Goolsbee repeated his pre-CPI outlook on Fed rates - that they would end up a "fair bit below where we are today,” though that's conditional on "confidence that we are on path to 2 percent inflation.”
  • It would appear that the January inflation data has tested but not completely shaken FOMC doves' confidence in the disinflationary story - Powell didn't express particular concern when asked in Congress earlier (“we’re close, but not there on inflation.”)
  • And the only other post-CPI commenter so far - Atlanta's Bostic, more of a hawk than a dove - doesn't seem to have changed his overall rate cut view (in line with the FOMC median, 50bp this year and 50bp next), though he mentioned "uncertainty" as a reason to be less confident, with the latest inflation data suggesting that careful monitoring of conditions is still required.
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Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (dove, 2025 FOMC voter) tells the NY Times that the January CPI report was "sobering". While he told the NYT that seasonal effects may have been at play as usual in January, and echoed Fed Chair Powell's post-CPI comments by saying that he would not read too much into a single inflation report, he also said “there’s no question, if we got multiple months like this, then the job is clearly not done." 

  • Nonetheless, Goolsbee repeated his pre-CPI outlook on Fed rates - that they would end up a "fair bit below where we are today,” though that's conditional on "confidence that we are on path to 2 percent inflation.”
  • It would appear that the January inflation data has tested but not completely shaken FOMC doves' confidence in the disinflationary story - Powell didn't express particular concern when asked in Congress earlier (“we’re close, but not there on inflation.”)
  • And the only other post-CPI commenter so far - Atlanta's Bostic, more of a hawk than a dove - doesn't seem to have changed his overall rate cut view (in line with the FOMC median, 50bp this year and 50bp next), though he mentioned "uncertainty" as a reason to be less confident, with the latest inflation data suggesting that careful monitoring of conditions is still required.