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CHILE: BCCh July Decision Seen as Close Call, Economist Survey Due Wednesday

CHILE
  • The slightly lower-than expected inflation data for June moderately weighed on the Chilean peso on Monday, with USDCLP rising back to around 940. Potential expectations of the BCCh continuing its easing cycle were offset by the most recent survey of traders, which showed the consensus forecast is for a rate hold later this month.
  • It is important to note that this was the view of 54% of respondents, and a notable share is still expecting a 25bps cut (46% of the respondents), taking the policy rate to 5.5%. Looking ahead, traders expect a 25bps cut in September, a pause in October, and a final 25bps reduction to 5.25% in December. 
  • The BCCh's Economist Survey will be released tomorrow and is the only notable release on the domestic calendar this week.
  • Copper held steady in a mixed session for industrial metals, as the most recent recovery in July consolidated around $4.60 per pound. This should leave Chilean assets at the mercy of prepared remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, testifying to Congress.
  • In separate domestic news, Chile’s deadline to receive opinions on a draft bill about financial strategy to deal with climate change expires today.
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