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China Able To Meet 3% CPI Rise Target for 2022 (NDRC)

CHINA
  • NDRC expects CPI inflation to keep rising until Q1 2023, mainly driven by the surge in pork prices, which rose by 20.2% in July YoY.
  • *CHINA ABLE TO MEET 3% CPI RISE TARGET FOR 2022: NDRC OFFICIAL (bbg).
  • China officials have remained quiet regarding CPI projections, which have been constantly rising in Asia/SE Asia, forcing central banks to tighten policy in 2022.
  • Premier Li Keqiang stated in July that China would be able to keep the 2022 price rise under the 3.5% level, with officials still aiming to achieve a 5%/5.5% growth target for this year despite the elevated uncertainty due to the strict zero-Covid policy.
  • We saw that China officials eventually ‘followed’ the market by cutting the policy rate (7D reverse repo) this month by 10bps to stimulate the economic activity.
  • Hence, the interest rates cut combined with the surge in risk aversion has been supporting the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan, with USDCNY rising to a new local high at 6.87 (Aug 2020 highs).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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